Long Term Health Care

The Government Actuaries Department estimates that a boy born this year has a life expectancy of 75.7 years, and a girl 80.4 years; but if improvements continue at current rates, their life expectancy could be 79.8 and 84 respectively. Of today's fifty year olds, men can look forward, on average, to another 28 years, and women to another 32 years. By 2021, it is estimated there will be over 12 million people aged 65 and older in the UK, compared to just over nine million today. Even the number of centenarians is set to more than double, to 27,000 in 2021, compared to only 12,000 now.

However, there is evidence that, though we are living longer, we are not staying healthier. The National Statistics Office monitors healthy life expectancy and their latest research shows this is increasing at a slower rate than total life expectancy. In other words, we can expect to spend more of our longer lives in poor health. In 1981 the number of years you might expect to live in poor health was 6.4, by 1995 this had risen to 7.7, with women more likely than men to live a greater proportion of their years, after the age of 65, suffering from a long-standing, limiting illness.

At the same time, with changing social patterns, such as more and more women working full-time, and families dispersed further and further afield, fewer elderly people are cared for by their relatives. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that the likely outcome of all these demographic changes is more people needing long-term care.